Ed Lorenz’s Publications

Lectures and Autobiographical Works

1970: Progress report on atmospheric predictability Never printed

1972: Limits of meteorological predictability Prepared for the American Meteorological Society, February

1972: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?” Talk presented Dec. 29, AAAS Section on Environmental Sciences, New Approaches to Global Weather: GARP. Sheraton Park Plaza Hotel, Boston, MA

1979: Dynamical and empirical methods of weather forecasting November. Unknown context

1987: The Ideal Hadley Circulation: Fundamental Flow or Fairy Tale? [Starr lecture]

1991: Reply to questionnaire For Kyoto Award

1991: A scientist by choice Kyoto Award lecture

1997?: Climate is what you expect [Prepared for publication by NCAR; unknown if actually printed. Possibly related to presentation at NCAR colloquiem, Applications of statistics to modeling the Earth’s climate system, November 1994.]

1999?: The simplest chaotic Hamiltonian system. Physica D. Withdrawn?

[date unknown] Chaos and the weather forecast (copyrighted material – unavailable for distribution)

2007: Foreword Empirical methods in short-term climate prediction, van den Dool, H., ed. Oxford University Press, pp. xi-xii (copyrighted material – unavailable for distribution)

2008: The butterfly effect Premio Felice Pietro Chisesi e Caterina Tomassoni award lecture, University of Rome, Italy, April

Scientific Publications
(copyrighted material unavailable for distribution)

1950: Dynamic models illustrating the energy balance of the atmosphere J. Meteor., 7, 30-38

1950: Seasonal and irregular variations of the northern hemisphere sea-level pressure profile J. Meteor., 8, 52-59

1951: Flow of angular momentum as a predictor for the zonal westerlies J. Meteor., 9, 152-157

1953: The interaction between a mean flow and random disturbances Tellus, 3, 238-250

1953: A proposed explanation for the existence of two regimes of flow in a rotating symmetrically-heated cylindrical vessel Fluid Models in Geophysics, Proc. 1st Sympos. Models in Geophys. Fluid Dynamics, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins U., 73-80

1953: A multiple-index notation for describing atmospheric transport processes Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 100-110

1953: Displacement and intensification associated with variations of local angular momentum  Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 164-170

1953: The vertical extent of Jupiter’s Atmosphere Geophys. Res. Papers, 24, 123-127

1954: A study of the general circulation and a possible theory suggested by it  Sci. Proc. Internat. Assoc. Meteor., Rome, Italy 603-608

1955: Available potential energy and the maintenance of the general circulation Tellus, 7, 271-281

1955: Generation of available potential energy and the intensity of the general circulation Scientific Report No. 1, UCLA, Dept. of Meteorology, July 1955

1956: Empirical orthogonal functions and statistical weather prediction Scientific Report No. 1, Statistical Forecasting Project. Air Force Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF, Bedford,MA,

1957: Static stability and atmospheric energy Scientific Report No. 9, General Circulation Project, Starr, V. P., director, Geophysics Research Directorate of the Air Force Cambridge Research Center, 41 pp

1960: Generation of available potential energy and the intensity of the general circulation Dynamics of Climate (R. L. Pfeffer, Ed.), Oxford, Pergamon Press

1960: Maximum simplification of the dynamic equations Tellus, 12, 243-254

1960: Energy and numerical weather prediction Tellus, 12, 364-373

1961: A numerical study of the effect of vertical stability on monsoonal and zonal circulations(with E. B. Kraus). Changes of Climate, UNESCO, Belgium, pp. 361-372

1962: Simplified dynamic equations applied to the rotating-basin experiments J. Atmos. Sci.,19, 39-51

1962: The statistical prediction of solutions of dynamic equations Proc. Internat. Sympos. Numerical Weather Prediction, Tokyo, Japan 629-635

1963: The predictability of hydrodynamic flow Trans.N.Y. Acad. Sci., Ser. II, 25, No. 4, 409-432

1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow J. Atmos. Sci.,20, 130-141

1963: The mechanics of vacillationJ. Atmos. Sci., 20, 448-464

1964: The problem of deducing the climate from the governing equationsTellus, 16, 1-11

1965: Energetics of atmospheric circulationInternational Dictionary of Geophysics, Pergamon Press, 1-9

1965: On the possible reasons for long-period fluctuations of the general circulation WMO-IUGG Symp. on Research and Development Aspects of Long-range Forecasting, Technical Note No. 66, WMO-No. 162.TP.79, 203-211

1965: A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model Tellus, 17, 321-333

1966: Atmospheric predictabilityAdvances in Numerical Weather Prediction. The Travelers Research Center, Inc.,34-39

1966: Nonlinearity, weather prediction, and climate deduction Final report, Statistical Forecasting Project, Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF, Bedford, MA, 22 pp

1966: The circulation of the atmosphereAmer. Scientist, 54, 402-420

1966: Numerical experiments with large-scale seasonal forcing (with E. B. Kraus). J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 3-12

1966: Reply J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 629-630

1966: Large-scale motions of the atmosphere: circulation Advances in Earth Science, MIT Press, 95-109

1967: The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere. [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] World Meteorological Organization, No. 218, TP 115, 161 pp

1967: The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere WMO Bulletin, April 1967, 74-78

1968: Climatic determinism  Meteor. Monographs, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 25, 1-3

1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion Tellus, 21, 19 pp

1969: Three approaches to atmospheric predictability Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 50, 345-351

1969: Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 636-646

1969: Studies of atmospheric predictability. [Part 1] [Part 2] [Part 3] [Part 4] Final Report, February, Statistical Forecasting Project. Air Force Research Laboratories, Office of Aerospace Research, USAF, Bedford,MA, 145 pp

1969: The nature of the global circulation of the atmosphere: a present view The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, London, Roy. Meteor. Soc., 3-23

1969: How much better can weather prediction become? Technology Rev., July/August, 39-49

1970: Climatic change as a mathematical problem J. Appl. Meteor., 9, 325-329

1970: Forecast for another century of weather progress A Century of Weather Progress. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 18-24

1971: An N-cycle time-differencing scheme for stepwise numerical integration Mon. Wea. Rev., 99, 644-648

1972: Investigating the predictability of turbulent motion Statistical Models and Turbulence, Proceedings of symposium held at the University of California, San Diego, July 15-21, 1971, Springer-Verlag, pp. 195-204

1972: Barotropic instability of Rossby wave motion>J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 258-264

1972: Low-order models representing realizations of turbulence J. Fluid Mech., 55, 545-563

1973: Predictability and periodicity: A review and extension Proc. 3rd Conf. Prob. and Statis. In Atmos. Sci., Amer. Meteor. Sci., 1-4

1973: On the existence of extended range predictabilityJ. Appl. Meteor., 12, 543-546

1975: Climatic predictability GARP Publications Series, April, pp. 132-136

1976: Nondeterministic theories of climatic change Quaternary Res., 6, 495-506

1976: A rapid procedure for inverting del-square with certain computers Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 961-966

1976 : Limitations on weather prediction.Colloquium on Weather Forecasting and Weather Forecasts: Models, Systems, and Users, Boulder, CO., Notes from a Colloquium, vol: 1 pp. 214 -218

1977: An experiment in nonlinear statistical weather forecasting Mon. Wea. Rev.,105, 590-602

1978: A reply to comments by Franz Fliri Letter to the editor, University of Washington, 249-250

1978: Available energy and the maintenance of a moist circulation Tellus, 30, 15-31

1979: Numerical evaluation of moist available energy Tellus, 31, 230-235

1979: Forced and free variations of weather and climate J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1367-1376

1979: On the prevalence of aperiodicity in simple systems Global analysis, New York, Springer Verlag, 53-75

1980: Noisy periodicity and reverse bifurcation Ann.N.Y. Acad. Sci., 357, 282-291

1980: Attractor sets and quasi-geostrophic equilibrium J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 1685-1699

1980: Nonlinear statistical weather prediction. [Abstract only] WMO Symposium on the Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Weather Forecasting, Nice, Sept. 8-12, 1980, Collection of papers presented, Geneva, Switzerland, World Meteorological Organization, 3-8

1982: Low-order models of atmospheric circulations J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 60,1, 255-267

1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model Tellus, 34, 505-513

1982: Some aspects of atmospheric predictability European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Seminar 1981: problems and prospects in long and medium range weather forecasting, 14-18 September, Reading,Eng., March, 1982. pp. 1-20. 1982. Also in Problems and Prospects in Long and Medium Range Weather Forecasting (D. M. Burridge and E. Kallen, eds.),Berlin, Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag, 1-20

1983: A history of prevailing ideas about the general circulation of the atmosphere Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 64, 730-734

1983: Crafoord Prize announcement Tellus, 36A, 97.]

1984: Formulation of a low-order model of a moist general circulation J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1933-1945

1984: Estimates of atmospheric predictability at medium range Predictability of Fluid Motions (G. Holloway and B. West, eds.), New York, American Institute of Physics, 133-139

1984: Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere Crafoord Prize Lecture, presented at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden, September 28, 1983. Tellus, 36A, 98-110

1984: The local structure of a chaotic attractor in four dimensionsPhysica, 13D, 90-104

1984: A very narrow spectral band J. Stat. Phys., 36, 1-14

1985: The growth of errors in prediction InTurbulence and Predictability in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics and Climate Dynamics, Soc. Italiana di Fisica, Bologna,Italy, 243-265

1985: Lyapunov numbers and the local structure of attractorsPhysica, 17D, 279-294

1986: The index cycle is alive and well In Namias Symposium, Roads, J. O., ed. California Univ., Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California, SIO Reference 86-17, Aug., 1986. pp. 188-196. 1986

1986: On the existence of a slow manifold J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 1547-1557

1986: Atmospheric models as dynamical systems Perspectives in Nonlinear Dynamics, World Scientific Publishing Co., 1-17

1987: Deterministic and stochastic aspects of atmospheric dynamics Irreversible Phenomena and Dynamical Systems Analysis in Geosciences. D. Reidel Publishing Co., 159-179

1987: Low-order models and their uses  Irreversible Phenomena and Dynamical Systems Analysis in Geosciences. D. Reidel Publishing Co., 557-567

1987: On the nonexistence of a slow manifold (with V. Krishnamurthy) J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2940-2950

1989: Effects of analysis and model errors on routine weather forecastsTen Years of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Reading, England, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), pp. 115-128

1989: Computational chaos: a prelude to computational instability Physica, 35D, 299-317

1990: Can chaos and intransitivity lead to interannual variability? Tellus, 42A, 378-389

1990: Charney—a remarkable colleague In The Atmosphere—a challenge, the science of Jule Gregory Charney, Lindzen, R. S., Lorenz, E. N., and Platzman, G. W., eds. Boston, MA, American Meteorological Society, pp. 89-91

1991: Chaos, spontaneous climatic variations and detection of the greenhouse effect Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations, M. E. Schlesinger, Ed. Elsevier Science Publishers B. V., Amsterdam, Netherlands, 445-453

1991: The general circulation of the atmosphere: an evolving problem Tellus, 43AB, 8-15

1991: Dimension of weather and climate attractors Nature, 353, 241-244

1992: The slow manifold: What is it? J. Atmos. Sci.,49, 2449-2451

1993:The Essence of Chaos. Univ. of Washington Press, Seattle, WA 227 pp

1996: The bulletin interviewsWMO Bulletin, Vol. 45, No. 2

1996: The evolution of dynamic meteorology Historical essays on meteorology 1919-1995, J. R. Fleming, Ed., Amer. Meteor. Soc., 3—19

1998: Optimal sites for supplementary weather observations: simulations with a small model (with K. A. Emanuel) J. Atmos. Sci.,> 55, 399-414

2005 : Some reflections on the theoretical predictability of climate. [Abstract only] Ed Lorenz Symposium, San Diego, CA, 8-14 January. American Meteorological Society

2005: Designing chaotic models J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1574-1587

2005: A look at some details of the growth of initial uncertaintiesTellus, 57A, 1-11

2006: Predictability ― a problem partly solved In Predictability of Weather and Climate, ed. Tim Palmer and Renate Hagedorn. Cambridge University Press, 40-58

2006: Reflections on the conception, birth, and childhood of numerical weather prediction Ann. Rev. Earth Planetary Sci., 34, 37-45

2006: An attractor embedded in the atmosphere Tellus, 58A, 425-429

2006: Computational periodicity as observed in a simple system Tellus, 58A, 549-557

2006: Regimes in simple systems J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2056–2073

2008: Compound windows of the Hénon map Physica D, 237, 1689-1704

2008: Reply to comment by L.-S. Yao and D. Hughes Tellus.